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PETROL OFİSİ
1 Aralık 2022 Başlangıç - 28 Şubat 2023 Bitiş
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03 Ekim 2022 - Pazartesi 21:24 Bu yazı 1795 kez okundu
 
Container Market Outlook
Umur UĞURLU
Deniz Lojistiği Yöneticisi / Uzakyol Kaptanı - umurugurlu@umurugurlu.com
 
 
Container Ships are common means of transport through sea-route. These ships carry truck-sized intermodal freights or containers which carry loads to be transported globally. The containers have standardized dimensions and these intermodal freight container systems refer to as containerization.
 
The typical size of containers is measured in terms of twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). First container ship was designed in late 18th century in England to carry standardized load units. Shipping expenses and time has been lowered due to containerization which leads to growth of international trade. Hence container shipping is highly flexible with low energy consumption and provides great protection to goods. In present scenario, more than 90 percent of non-bulk cargo is transported via containerization and largest container ship can carry over 23,000 TEU.
 
 
The global container shipping market trend suggests that the COVID outbreak worked negatively for the market. The pandemic also resulted in the social distancing norms and lockdowns all over the world with countries trying to contain the spread of the virus and this caused a major break in the supply chain of the market. China was at the forefront of the illness and its spread and is also the leading exporter in the market and then the trade war between US and China is going to show a drop in trade. China is among the major exporter of the consumer goods all over the world and the declining exports due to coronavirus has impacted the market significantly for the containers. Though the container shipping market 2022 looks good as the vaccination drive has taken place and that has helped the market get back to normal.
 
During the COVID-19 period, the global economy may be affected in different ways: directly as it relates to production and demand, indirectly as it relates to supply chains and markets, and as a result of its financial consequences on firms and financial markets. Analysts monitoring the situation around the world explain that producers will be rewarded after the COVID-19 crisis. (1)
 
Today the carriers learnt to focus on two elements of scale, and both of them can encourage consolidation:
1. The size of vessels.
2. The size of networks.
 
The larger the vessel, the lower the unit cost for carriers. But to invest in larger ships, a carrier needs volume. And partnerships and mergers are one way to ensure these larger ships have volume.
 
The container shipping companies are faced with the perfect storm with the ever tighter environmental regulations coming into force and oil prices jumping, exerting further pressure on liners to squeeze out profit from the buoyant demand.
 
The past couple of years have been volatile for shippers around the world. At the beginning of the pandemic, attempts to hedge against dramatic rate drops via capacity management contributed to an increase in prices when consumer demand shot up in the summer of 2020.
 
Now two years into the supply chain crisis, rates are beginning to stabilize – although on some lanes prices are still 400 percent higher than they were pre-pandemic.
 
For a bird’s eye view of freight costs increases in 2022 and since the beginning of serious supply chain disruptions, check out the chart below based on FBX data. (2)
 
 
It seems that supply chain problems were keeping vessel utilisation high. Although the NOO said it would focus on state-of-theart newbuildings with environmental profiles, to add to its current 6 methanol-ready newbuilding contracts, it sees no attractive opportunities at present.
 
Danaos Annual Revenue (USD M, LTM - last twelve months) (3) 
 
Freight rates have come down by approximately an average of 20 percent since the beginning of the year 2022 and these will continue to slide gradually, but there will not be a massive decrease because the underlying disruptions in the supply chain are still there. Inflation, for one, has started to create build stress on the US economy and the EU. With inflation and pandemic-induced lockdowns, disruptions will continue to change the equation between supply, demand and prices. In the longer term, these will phase out and create a new normal balance of supply and demand.
 
As we witness the easing of supply chain disruptions in the coming months it will lead to higher box productivity and a structural surplus of containers. If we also see further softening of demand, this will increase the supply of containers available for cargo. According to Brandessence Market Research it is expected that the Growing at CAGR 8.6 percent, Container Shipping Market to Reach USD 11.40 Billion by 2027
 
The situation can be studied from the perspective of the market forces of demand and supply. If the demand for containers falls (resulting from the decline in consumer demand over the course of the next few months considering, the rising inflation which could contribute to negative consumer sentiment), then the supply of containers will naturally increase. Also, price is a function of demand and supply. If demand falls and supply increases, prices will fall. And that is what is currently happening with the container prices.
 
Wishing Calm Seas All Mariners.
 
Sources:
(1) PR Newswire
(2) https://www.freightos.com/freight-resources/coronavirus-updates/
(3) The Alphaliner Weekly Newsletter 2022 - 32
 
Etiketler: Container, Market, Outlook, , ,
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